New Report Estimates 1.3 Million Decline Since Last Summer



    WASHINGTON, July 30 /EMWNews/ -- A new analysis of

monthly Census Bureau data shows a significant decline in the number of

less-educated Hispanic immigrants. The report is the first to show

systematic evidence that the illegal population is decreasing. There is

good evidence that recent immigration enforcement efforts are a key factor

causing the decline.



    The report, entitled "Homeward Bound: Recent Immigration Enforcement

and the Decline in the Illegal Alien Population," is available at the

Center for Immigration Studies web site

http://www.cis.org/trends_and_enforcement.



    Among the findings:



    -- Our best estimate is that the illegal immigrant population has

declined by 11 percent through May of this year after hitting a peak in

August 2007.



    -- The implied decline in the illegal population is 1.3 million since

last summer, from 12.5 in August 2007 to 11.2 million in May 2008.



    -- The estimated decline of the illegal population is at least 7 times

larger than the number of illegal aliens removed by the government in the

last 10 months, so most of the decline is due to illegal immigrants leaving

the country on their own.



    -- One indication that stepped-up enforcement is responsible for the

decline is that only the illegal immigrant population seems to be effected;

the legal immigrant population continues to grow.



    -- Another indication enforcement is causing the decline is that the

illegal immigrant population began falling before there was a significant

rise in their unemployment rate.



    -- The importance of enforcement is also suggested by the fact that the

current decline is already significantly larger than the decline during the

last recession.



    -- While the decline began before unemployment rose, the evidence

indicates that unemployment has increased among illegal immigrants, so the

economic slowdown is likely to be at least partly responsible for the

decline in the number of illegal immigrants.



    -- There is good evidence that the illegal population rose last summer

while Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants. When that

legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to fall almost

immediately.



    Discussion: These findings are consistent with anecdotal evidence. They

are also consistent with data showing a fall off in remittances sent home

by immigrants. And they are in line with a drop in border apprehensions.

While the evidence indicates that stepped-up immigration enforcement has

played an important role in causing the decline, the economic downturn is

also likely to be encouraging illegal immigrants to return home. The

decline in the illegal population, whatever the cause, seems to directly

challenge the argument that illegal aliens are so firmly attached to their

lives in this country that it is not possible to induce many of them to

return home. If the current trend were sustained, it could cut the illegal

population in half within five years.



    There is no way to know whether the current trend will continue. Future

enforcement efforts as well as the state of the economy will likely

determine if the number of illegal immigrants continues to drop. Both

presidential candidates have recently stated their strong commitment to

legalizing those in the country illegally. Pronouncements of this kind may

have consequences. When Congress was considering legalizing illegal

immigrants last summer, there is evidence that the illegal population grew.

When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to

decline rapidly. It may be that the repeated promises of legalization by

both candidates in recent weeks will encourage more illegal immigrants to

enter the country or encourage those already in the country, who might

otherwise leave, to stay in the hopes of being awarded legal status.



    Methodology: This study uses monthly data from the Current Population

Survey collected by the Census Bureau. The Department of Homeland Security,

the former INS and other outside research organizations have used Census

Bureau data to estimate the illegal immigrant population. We examine trends

in the number of foreign-born less-educated young Hispanics. Prior research

indicates that 80 percent of these individuals are in the country

illegally. We estimate the range for the decline in the illegal immigrant

population is 9 to 14 percent, with 11 percent as the most likely value.



    Contact: Steven Camarota



    (202) 466-8185 • [email protected]



    The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent research institute

which examines the impact of immigration on the United States.