Kamakura Credit Index Shows Recession Is Underway Kamakura Troubled Company Index Rates 13.6% of Corporates in Distress
2008-04-01 07:00:00
Kamakura Credit Index Shows Recession Is Underway
Kamakura Troubled Company Index Rates 13.6% of Corporates in Distress
HONOLULU, HI–( EMWNews – April 1, 2008) – Kamakura Corporation announced today that its
monthly index of troubled public companies increased sharply in March,
firmly signaling that the global economy has moved into a recession. The
Kamakura troubled company index jumped sharply from 12.3% in February to
13.6% in March. Kamakura defines a “recession” as a period where corporate
credit quality is worse than the 19-year average for the troubled company
index, 13.4%. At its current 13.6% level, the index shows that credit
conditions are better than only 41.3% of the monthly periods since the
start of the index in January 1990. Kamakura defines a troubled company as
a company whose default
probability is in excess of 1%. The index covers more than 20,000 public
companies in 29 countries using the fourth generation version of Kamakura’s
advanced credit models.
“This month’s move in the troubled company index puts us firmly in
recession territory,” said Warren Sherman, Kamakura President and Chief
Operating Officer. “While we remain well below the 28.0% peak of the index
reached in September 2001, this month’s deterioration in credit quality was
broad-based. In March, the percentage of the global corporate universe with
default probabilities between 1% and 5% jumped 0.7% to 9.2%. The percentage
of companies with default probabilities between 5% and 10% was up 0.5% to
2.4% of the universe in March. The percentage of the universe with default
probabilities between 10 and 20% was unchanged at 1.3% of the universe.
The percentage of companies with default probabilities over 20% was up by
0.1% to 0.8% of the total universe in March.”
Beginning in January 2006, Kamakura moved to a global index covering 29
countries using the annualized one month default probability produced by
the best performing credit model of the Kamakura Risk Information Services
default and correlation service. The model used is the fourth generation
Jarrow-Chava reduced form default probability, a formula that bases default
predictions on a sophisticated combination of financial ratios, stock price
history, and macro-economic factors. The countries currently covered by the
index include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan,
Luxemburg, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway,
Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan,
United Kingdom, and the United States.
About Kamakura Corporation
Founded in 1990, Kamakura Corporation is a leading provider of risk management information,
processing and software. Kamakura has been a provider of daily default
probabilities and default correlations for listed companies since November
2002. Kamakura launched its collateralized debt obligation (CDO) pricing
service KRIS-CDO in April 2007. Kamakura is also the first company in the
world to develop and install a fully integrated enterprise risk management
system that analyzes credit risk, market risk, asset and liability management,
transfer pricing, and capital allocation. Kamakura has served more than
185 clients ranging in size from $3 billion in assets to $1.6 trillion in
assets. Kamakura’s risk management products are currently used in 27
countries, including the United States, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands,
France, Austria, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Russia, Eastern Europe,
the Middle East, Africa, Australia, Japan, China, Korea and many other
countries in Asia.
Kamakura has worldwide distribution alliances with IPS-Sendero
(www.fiservips-sendero.com) and Unisys (www.unisys.com), making Kamakura
products available in almost every major city around the globe.
For more information contact
Warren Sherman www.kamakuraco.com Kamakura Corporation |
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