U.S. Hardest Hit as Travelers Face Unprecedented Cutbacks in Available

        Seats; Indications for Asian Capacity to Drop Significantly



    WASHINGTON, Aug. 5 /EMWNews/ -- The world's airlines will offer 59.7

million fewer seats in the 4th quarter of 2008 than they did a year ago,

according to OAG (Official Airline Guide, http://www.oagcorporate.com) in its 10

year view of the global aviation industry. The latest figures from OAG's

consolidated database reveal a 7% drop both in the number of flights and in

seat capacity for October, November and December 2008 compared with the

same period last year. The U.S. domestic market will account for just under

20 million of that figure, or 33% of the global decline in capacity, in

what could potentially be the most widespread crisis to hit the aviation

industry in recent memory.



    The OAG analysis takes into account all future schedules filed by the

airlines to date, to provide a comprehensive snapshot of planned airline

activity for October to December 2008 with comparisons tracking back 10

years.



    In the 4th quarter of 2007, seat supply in intra-Asia markets outpaced

the U.S. for the first time. However, Asia is currently showing a 13%

decrease in capacity for 4th quarter 2008 (equivalent to a 3-year setback

in growth) although this may not be quite as severe as current figures show

as a number of Chinese carriers have not yet filed their full winter

schedules.



    Steve Casley, Chief Operating Officer of OAG, said, "The data speaks

for itself. It took a good three years for the industry to recover from the

downturn in 2001 when it had a 5% drop in capacity and a 7% drop in

flights. Steady annual growth since 2002 looks set to plummet in the fourth

quarter this year with an unprecedented global decline of 7%."



    "Commercial aviation marches in lock-step with the global economy,

closely reflecting growth and declines in GDP, with on average a steady

3-4% growth year over year," continued Casley. "In the last 10 years this

steady growth has been interrupted twice: first, by the meltdown of the

global economy in 2001 following the burst of the Internet bubble, which

was compounded by a year of crises with the traumatic events of 9/11, the

Gulf War and the SARS epidemic within Asia; and second -- on the immediate

horizon -- by the extraordinary impact that the rising cost of oil is

having on the global economy. We tend to focus so much attention on the

growth of Asian markets, but the projected 13% drop in Asian seat capacity

is a significant metric that may have wider impact.



    "From OAG's statistics, it looks quite possible that we may be facing a

far more severe global downturn than we have experienced before. The

industry's resilience will be pushed to its limits in the coming months,

with carriers, airports and passengers alike all waiting and watching for a

glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel."




    Other notable findings from the OAG analysis show:

    -- 275 airports worldwide to lose air service altogether, of which 32 are

       in the U.S. while 116 are in the Asia Pacific region.

    -- Transatlantic routes buck the trend with 2% year on year growth

    -- OAG adjusts its fleet forecast for 2017 down by more than 3,500

       aircraft

    -- OAG forecasts a drop in Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul (MRO) spend

       2009-2011 that could be as high at 15% based on 2001 historical data

       and potential future schedule reductions





    The full report can be accessed at

http://www.oag.com/oagcorporate/press_releases_2008.html .

    Fifteen illustrative charts showing 10 year trends are available at

http://www.oag.com/graphics/charts.htm



    Notes to Editors



    -- Downloadable images of 15 charts illustrating 10 year trends

mentioned in this release are available at

http://www.oag.com/graphics/charts.htm



    -- The data used in this analysis is compiled from OAG's schedules

database, which contains all schedules filed by the world's airlines, and

its fleet database, which contains a detailed accounting of every

commercial aircraft currently in service, storage or on order.



    -- The figures are based on information available as at 30 July 2008,

using all future published schedules for Q4 2008. These schedule filings

are subject to change by the airlines, and some carriers -- particularly in

China -- have not yet filed their full schedules for October onwards.



    -- Analysis of airports projected to lose air service was made by

comparing December 07 to December 08. Airports had to have at least 4

departures for December 2007 (one per week) to be included in the list.

    About OAG (Official Airline Guide)



    OAG (http://www.oagcorporate.com) is a global flight information and data

solutions company for the passenger aviation, air cargo logistics and

business travel markets. OAG is best known for its airline schedules

database which feeds the world's global distribution systems and travel

portals and drives the internal systems of many airlines, air traffic

control systems, aircraft manufacturers, airport planners and government

agencies.



    OAG is part of Commonwealth Business Media (http://www.cbizmedia.com) a wholly

owned subsidiary of United Business Media Limited

(http://www.unitedbusinessmedia.com).