NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 49.5%; July Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business(R); Business Activity Index at 49.6%; New Orders Index at 47.9%; Employment Index at 47.1%
2008-08-05 09:00:00
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 49.5%; July Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business(R); Business Activity Index at 49.6%; New Orders Index at 47.9%; Employment Index at 47.1%
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing
reports released across the country. The national report’s
information reflects the entire United States, while the regional
reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities.
Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating
the results of the national report. The information compiled in this
report is for the month of July 2008.
TEMPE, Ariz.–(EMWNews)–Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in
July, say the nation’s purchasing and supply
executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of
the Institute for Supply Management™
Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president —
supply management for Hilton Hotels Corporation. “The
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) increased 1.3 percentage points in July to
49.5 percent, indicating contraction for the second consecutive month in
the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity
Index decreased 0.3 percentage point to 49.6 percent. The New Orders
Index decreased 0.7 percentage point to 47.9 percent, and the Employment
Index increased 3.3 percentage points to 47.1 percent. The Prices Index
decreased 3.7 percentage points to 80.8 percent in July, indicating a
slower rate in price increases than in June. According to the NMI, nine
non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July. Members’
comments in July indicate concern about inflationary pressures and the
effect on the economy. Respondents’ comments
are mixed about business conditions and vary by industry and company.”
INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)
The nine industries reporting growth in July based on the new NMI
composite index — listed in order —
are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation;
Other Services(d); Professional, Scientific & Technical Services;
Educational Services; Utilities; Construction; Accommodation & Food
Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The six industries
reporting contraction in July are: Finance & Insurance; Public
Administration; Wholesale Trade; Information; Transportation &
Warehousing; and Retail Trade.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
-
“Our business remains at about the same
level as the previous month, with continued focus on cost reduction.”
(Finance & Insurance)
-
“The general state of the home-building
industry has not changed since last month; however, with the commodity
and code changes going into 2009, we face much higher construction
costs and reduced margins across the entire supply chain.”
(Construction)
-
“Continue to see slowdown in local economy.”
(Health Care & Social Assistance)
-
“While still positive, the overall outlook
for 2008 for our company is not as high as earlier in the year.”
(Wholesale Trade)
-
“Governmental spending for services is up
this period.” (Professional, Scientific &
Technical Services)
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a)
JULY 2008 |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
Index |
Non-Manufacturing |
Manufacturing |
||||||||||||||||
Series |
|
Series |
|
Percent |
|
Direction |
|
Rate of |
|
Trend(b) |
Series |
|
Series |
|
Percent |
|||
|
||||||||||||||||||
NMI/PMI |
49.5 |
48.2 |
+1.3 |
Contracting |
Slower |
2 |
50.0 |
50.2 |
-0.2 |
|||||||||
Business Activity/
Production |
49.6 |
49.9 |
-0.3 |
Contracting |
Faster |
2 |
52.9 |
51.5 |
+1.4 |
|||||||||
New Orders |
47.9 |
48.6 |
-0.7 |
Contracting |
Faster |
2 |
45.0 |
49.6 |
-4.6 |
|||||||||
Employment |
47.1 |
43.8 |
+3.3 |
Contracting |
Slower |
3 |
51.9 |
43.7 |
+8.2 |
|||||||||
Supplier Deliveries |
53.5 |
50.5 |
+3.0 |
Slowing |
Faster |
4 |
55.1 |
55.1 |
0.0 |
|||||||||
Inventories |
54.5 |
53.0 |
+1.5 |
Growing |
Faster |
3 |
45.0 |
51.2 |
-6.2 |
|||||||||
Prices |
80.8 |
84.5 |
-3.7 |
Increasing |
Slower |
62 |
88.5 |
91.5 |
-3.0 |
|||||||||
Backlog of Orders |
52.0 |
49.0 |
+3.0 |
Growing |
From |
1 |
43.0 |
47.5 |
-4.5 |
|||||||||
New Export Orders |
47.5 |
52.0 |
-4.5 |
Contracting |
From Growing |
1 |
54.0 |
58.5 |
-4.5 |
|||||||||
Imports |
49.0 |
50.5 |
-1.5 |
Contracting |
From Growing |
1 |
46.5 |
46.0 |
+0.5 |
|||||||||
Inventory Sentiment |
62.5 |
60.0 |
+2.5 |
“Too High” |
Faster |
134 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|||||||||
Customers’ Inventories |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
47.0 |
55.0 |
-8.0 |
(a) Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders,
Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment,
Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
(b) Number of months moving in current direction
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN
PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
A/C Parts; Airfares (5); Air Freight; Auto Fuel (2); Bacon (2); Bath
Tissue (2); Batteries; Beef (5); Bond Paper; Bread (3); Building
Materials; Butter; Carbon Pipe (2); Cereal (2); Computer Peripherals;
Computer Products and Supplies; Copier Paper (6); Copper (3); Crab Legs;
Dairy (2); Deliveries (2); Diesel Fuel (10); # 1 Diesel Fuel (3); # 2
Diesel Fuel (3); Flour; Food and Beverage (3); Food Products (3);
Freight Charges (2); Freight Fuel Surcharges (2); Fresh Food Items; Fuel
(18); Fuel Products (2); Fuel Surcharges (3); Gasoline(c) (11); Gasoline
Related (3); Gloves; Green Beans; # 2 Heating Fuel; Laptop Computers;
Lubricants; MRO Supplies; Natural Gas (2); Office Equipment; Paper (9);
Paper Products (5); Petroleum Based Products; Plastic Can Liners (2);
Plastic Films (2); Plastic Products; Plumbing Supplies; Poly Bags (2);
Red Peppers; Shipping Costs (5); Soy; Stainless Steel Products (3);
Steel (5); Steel Pipe and Fittings (2); Steel Products (3);
Transportation Costs (3); Transportation Services (2); Travel Costs; and
Valves.
Commodities Down in Price
Cable (2); Cheese; and Gasoline(c).
Commodities in Short Supply
Carbon Pipe and Sulfuric Acid are the only commodities reported in short
supply.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is
indicated after each item.
(c) Indicates reported both up and down in price.
JULY 2008 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index)
Beginning with the January 2008 Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®,
a composite index is now calculated as an indicator of the overall
economic condition for the non-manufacturing sector. The NMI is a
composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the
indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted),
New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and
Supplier Deliveries. July’s NMI at 49.5
percent indicates contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the
second consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the
non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50
percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.
The industries reporting growth in July are: Real Estate, Rental &
Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services(d);
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services;
Utilities; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; and Health Care
& Social Assistance. The industries reporting contraction in July are:
Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade;
Information; Transportation & Warehousing; and Retail Trade.
NMI HISTORY
|
|
|
|
|
Month |
|
|
|
|
|
NMI |
|
|||||||||||
July 2008 |
49.5 |
||||||||||
June 2008 |
48.2 |
||||||||||
May 2008 |
51.7 |
||||||||||
April 2008 |
52.0 |
||||||||||
March 2008 |
49.6 |
||||||||||
February 2008 |
49.3 |
||||||||||
January 2008 |
44.6 |
Business Activity
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity
Index in July registered 49.6 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage
point when compared to the 49.9 percent registered in June. Eight
industries reported increased business activity, and six industries
reported decreased activity for the month of July. Four industries
reported no change from June. Comments from respondents include: “Less
group business than forecast”; “Inflationary
pressures — general business slowdown”;
and “Careful spending.”
The industries reporting growth of business activity in July are: Real
Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Arts,
Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services(d); Professional, Scientific
& Technical Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social
Assistance; and Utilities. The industries reporting decreased business
activity in July are: Public Administration; Finance & Insurance;
Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support
Services; and Information.
Business Activity |
|
|
|
|
|
%Higher |
|
|
|
|
%Same |
|
|
|
|
%Lower |
|
|
|
|
Index |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
July 2008 |
24 |
51 |
25 |
49.6 |
|||||||||||||||||
June 2008 |
28 |
52 |
20 |
49.9 |
|||||||||||||||||
May 2008 |
32 |
50 |
18 |
53.6 |
|||||||||||||||||
April 2008 |
29 |
53 |
18 |
50.9 |
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
|
|
|
|
|
Month |
|
|
|
|
|
Business |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month |
|
|
|
|
|
Business |
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
July 2008 |
49.6 |
Jan 2008 |
41.9 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
June 2008 |
49.9 |
Dec 2007 |
54.4 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
May 2008 |
53.6 |
Nov 2007 |
54.6 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
Apr 2008 |
50.9 |
Oct 2007 |
55.5 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mar 2008 |
52.2 |
Sep 2007 |
55.7 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
Feb 2008 |
50.8 |
Aug 2007 |
56.3 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
Average for 12 months – 52.1
High – 56.3
Low – 41.9 |
New Orders
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index
contracted in July for the second consecutive month. The index decreased
0.7 percentage point to 47.9 percent from the 48.6 percent registered in
June. Comments from respondents include: “Mid-market
business is very slow”; “Advertisers
cutting spending”; and “Business
is slowing.”
Industries reporting growth of new orders in July are: Real Estate,
Rental & Leasing; Other Services(d); Management of Companies & Support
Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Educational
Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The
industries reporting contraction of new orders in July are: Public
Administration; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Information; and
Retail Trade.
New Orders |
|
|
|
|
|
%Higher |
|
|
|
|
%Same |
|
|
|
|
%Lower |
|
|
|
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