The Conference Board(R) France Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

 France Leading Economic Indicators and related composite indexes for June

                                    2008



    NEW YORK, Aug. 18 /EMWNews/ -- The Conference Board reports today

that the leading index for France declined 0.2 percent and the coincident

index remained unchanged in June.



    -- In June, the leading index declined for the eighth consecutive

month, primarily as a result of large declines in the stock market and

industrial new orders components. New unemployment claims (inverted)

continued to be the largest positive contributor to the index in the last

two months. Since December, the leading index has declined by 1.8 percent

(about a -3.7 percent annual rate), well below the 0.5 percent annual rate

of decline that prevailed during the last half of 2007. In addition, the

weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained very widespread in

recent months.



    -- The coincident index remained unchanged in June, and index levels

were revised slightly downwards between February and May as new quarterly

data became available for the wages and salaries component. During the last

six months, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent (about a 0.5

percent annual rate of growth), which is well below the 1.5 percent annual

rate of growth that prevailed during the last half of 2007. In addition,

the weaknesses and strengths among the coincident indicators have been

balanced in recent months.



    -- The leading index has been declining since October 2007, and the

weaknesses among its components have become very widespread throughout this

period. The decline in the leading index has been the largest since

mid-2001. The growth of the coincident index, a measure of current economic

activity, has slowed down in recent months compared to the rapid growth of

the first half of 2007. Meanwhile, real GDP growth slowed to a 0.2 percent

average annual rate in the first half of 2008 (including a 1.2 percent

annual rate of decline in the second quarter), well below the 2.1 percent

average annual rate of growth in the second half of 2007. The recent

behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic growth will remain

weak in the near term.



    LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the seven components of the leading index

increased in June. The positive contributors to the index -- in order from

the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are the inverted new

unemployment claims (inverted), and the yield spread. The negative

contributors to the index -- beginning with the largest negative

contributor -- are the stock price index, industrial new orders, building

permits (residential), production expectations, and the ratio of the

deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost for

manufacturing*.



    With the decrease of 0.2 percent in June, the leading index now stands

at 127.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.5 percent

in May and declined 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through

June, the leading index decreased 1.8 percent, and one of the seven

components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 14.3 percent).



    COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the four components of the coincident

index increased in June. The only positive contributor to the index was

employment*. Industrial production, personal consumption, and wage and

salaries* all declined in June.



    With the coincident index remaining unchanged in June, the index now

stands at 123.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1

percent in May and increased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month

period through June, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, with two

of the four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index,

six-month span equals 50.0 percent).



    ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD. Founded in 1916, The Conference Board is

the premier business membership and research network. It has become a

global leader in helping executives build strong professional

relationships, expand their business knowledge and find solutions to a wide

range of business challenges. The Conference Board's Economics Program is a

recognized source of forecasts, economic analysis and objective indicators

such as the Leading Economic Indicators and the Consumer Confidence Index.



    This role is part of a long tradition of research and education that

stretches back to the compilation of the first continuous measure of the

cost of living in the United States in 1919. In 1995 The Conference Board

assumed responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S.

Department of Commerce. The Conference Board now produces business cycle

indexes for the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Korea, Japan, Mexico,

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                      Summary Table of Composite Indexes



                                          2008                     6-month

                             Apr          May          Jun       Dec. to Jun

    Leading index          128.4 p      127.7 p      127.4 p

      Percent Change        -0.2 p       -0.5 p       -0.2 p       -1.8 p

      Diffusion             50.0         50.0         35.7         14.3

    Coincident Index       123.5 p      123.4 p      123.4 p

      Percent Change         0.1 p       -0.1 p        0.0 p        0.2 p

      Diffusion             62.5         50.0         37.5         50.0



    n.a. Not available   p Preliminary   r Revised

    Indexes equal 100 in 1990

    Source: The Conference Board   All Rights Reserved