Suffolk University Poll also Shows Obama Stronger Against McCain than
BOSTON, Aug. 25 /
EMWNews-USNewsire/ -- As the Democratic National
Convention opens today in Denver, voters in the swing state of Colorado are
giving the newly minted ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden a 5 point lead
(44-39) over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain of Arizona -
suggesting Colorado may be rocky territory for the once dominant GOP,
according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.
"With Colorado among at least seven battleground states that will swing
this Presidential election, an Obama lead here puts enormous pressure on
John McCain," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research
Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "Should Obama go on to win
Colorado, it would almost force McCain to run the table with the remaining
battleground states or lose the election."
Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr and Independent Ralph Nader each
polled 2 percent, while 12 percent of voters surveyed were undecided. There
are 15 candidates for president listed on the Colorado ballot.
Most Democratic respondents gave Obama high marks in the expectations
game. Some 78 percent of Democratic respondents said the Obama campaign had
met or exceeded expectations while just 16 percent said the campaign had
not met expectations. In addition, only 19 percent of likely Democratic
voters thought that Obama, by picking a male running mate, would have a
problem with women voters. By contrast, 70 percent said that it would not
be a problem.
Exactly 71 percent of Democratic respondents were happy with Joe Biden
as the VP pick while 11 percent wanted someone else. (The Biden questions
were only asked of respondents in two of the four field days).
When all voters were asked who would be the stronger candidate against
John McCain - Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton - 60 percent indicated Obama;
28 percent said Clinton; and 10 percent were undecided.
"The notion and significance of Democrats irreparably disaffected by
the tough primary fight between Obama and New York Senator Hillary Clinton
seems to be more of an obsession with the Beltway chattering classes than
with the electorate," Paleologos said.
Obama widely won the perception game, as well. When asked who would be
the next president, regardless of their personal preference, 52 percent of
voters polled said Barack Obama, 28 percent said John McCain, and 19
percent were undecided.
The Obama 5 percent lead over McCain included an 8 percent lead in the
initial ballot test and, when undecided respondents were asked who they
were leaning toward, McCain closed the gap among "leaners" to 5 percent.
In the fight for the U.S. Senate seat this November, Democrat Mark
Udall (39 percent) led Republican Bob Schaffer (31 percent), American
Constitution Party Douglas "Dayhorse" Campbell (4 percent), and Green Party
Robert Kinsey (2 percent). There were 22 percent undecided for U.S. Senate.
The bellwether of Alamosa County showed Obama (40 percent) leading
McCain (36 percent) with Barr and Nader each receiving 1 percent while 16
percent were undecided and 6 percent refused. In 2008, Suffolk University
bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in
both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when coupled with the sister
statewide Suffolk polls of the respective states, were 100 percent accurate
in predicting straight-up winners.
The Suffolk University poll was conducted Thursday, August 21, 2008,
through Sunday, August 24, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 450 is
+/- 4.6 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from
the Colorado statewide survey were likely voters from all parties in
Colorado. Separate from the statewide poll there were 300 respondents from
Alamosa County, Colo. Marginals and 186 pages of cross-tabulation data will
be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site -
http://www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on Monday, Aug. 25, 2008. For more
information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.